Forecast models show wide range of snowfall possibilities as major winter storm approaches Peoria

The first major snowstorm of the winter is heading to Peoria this weekend. But exactly how much accumulation to anticipate remains unclear.

John Bumgardner, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Lincoln, says Greater Peoria could get anywhere from 2-6 inches from the system that’s expected to reach the area Sunday morning.

“Models had been fairly consistent the last several days, and then yesterday morning, they shifted a little bit north,” Bumgardner said Friday. “Then yesterday evening, a little bit south, and this morning a little bit south again. So we’re in the process of updating the forecast.”

Bumgardner said Central Illinois is likely to see the heaviest snow falling Sunday afternoon into evening, with precipitation ending by Monday morning. He said the highest snowfall figures will likely be south of Interstate 72, but that forecast still could change.

“This system that the models are forecasting for has just come on shore along the west coast, so it's still pretty far away,” he said. “Obviously, it'll be moving over a big part of the country over the next couple days, so there’s some uncertainty.

“In weather models, especially as you get further out in time, we start to see a little bit of the butterfly effect. Any error in the model can result in significant errors in the forecast several days in the future.”

The NWS has issued a winter storm watch that goes into effect Sunday morning for areas including Peoria, Tazewell and Woodford counties. The agency’s maps have Peoria with a 15% chance of getting a foot of snow or more.

“If people haven't done it already, make sure that you're stocked up on food and water and things like that,” said Bumgardner. “If you're going to be traveling, have an emergency supply kit in your car with like flashlight, maybe some hand warmers, just lots of warm clothes, because it's going to get cold next week.”

Bumgardner said forecasts call for high temperatures to dip from the high 20s on Monday into the teens for the rest of next week through Friday. He says lows are expected to fall into single digits and drop below zero later in the week.

He adds that wind gusts may reach 30-35 mph on Sunday night into Monday, resulting in some blowing and drifting snow.

“It’s not a full on blizzard, but there'll be a bit of wind, so you might have to shovel more than once if you’ve got to get in and out of the driveway,” he said.