Motorists in the Peoria area could see the price of gas slipping closer to the $3 mark over the next couple of months.
According to the fuel market website GasBuddy, the national average for a gallon of unleaded hit $2.99 on Monday for the first time since May 2021, although it’s since gone back up to $3.02.
In the Peoria market, the average stood at $3.11 to start the week.
“That is about 17 cents lower than where we were last year,” said GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan in an interview with WCBU. “It's also about 16 cents lower than a month ago, and we could see prices get closer and closer as more and more stations fall below the $3 mark. We've already seen some stations falling below that, on and off.”
De Haan says lower gas prices are normal for this time of year.
“Americans generally consume less and less gasoline the more into winter we get, or the more into colder weather we get,” he said. “That decrease in demand means more supply. That means lower prices, and so the national average does tend to continue to decline.”
De Haan said the national average flirted with dipping below $3 during the past few winters, but never quite got there.
“Last year, we bottomed out at $3.07 (and) back in 2022 the national average fell to $3.05,” he said. “But as we continue to put distance between us and the (COVID) pandemic, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the global market continues to work on balancing itself again.”
De Haan noted one key factor keeping the Peoria average above $3 is the high gasoline taxes in Illinois compared to the rest of the Midwest. All five neighboring states currently have averages below $3.
He cautioned that unforeseen events could alter the downward trend.
“There's still the possibility of things like refinery outages, or the potential of a president-elect (Donald) Trump implementing tariffs on Canadian oil. Of course, a lot of that Canadian oil ends up right here in Illinois,” he said. “So that's something to keep an eye on that could potentially impact gas prices in January.”
De Haan said Peoria’s window for reaching the $3 mark will only last for a couple of months.
“I think that we'll continue to see some pressure on gas prices over the next couple of months, but by the time we get to mid- to late February, that's when we start the seasonal transition over to summer gasoline,” he said.
“It's hard to know right now, months ahead, how much gasoline supply refineries will have to get rid of before they begin the transition to summer gasoline, but typically there is somewhat of a late winter clearance sale on gasoline before we make that switch,” he said. “So there is a possibility that we could get a nice shot in the arm come late January and February, when refineries start to try and liquidate that winter gasoline.”
