If three possible mainstream contenders for the congressional seat being vacated by Aaron Schock all jump into the race, the Springfield area could be the contested territory.
Businessman Ed Brady of Bloomington is considering a run. So is former State Representative Jill Tracy of Quincy. And State Senator Darin LaHood of Peoria, the son of former Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, has announced he is running for sure.
Ed Brady says it will be costly even with a campaign of only a couple months length.
"It's not going to be a cheap election. Jill's got, as I'm told unlimited resources at her disposal. Darin and Ray will raise some money. And I think I have a base that will raise me enough money to be credible."
Brady can likely tap his brother's organization and contacts in fundraising appeals. State Senator Bill Brady has run numerous times for Governor. Ed Brady says he is still analyzing how much money it will take to run in the sprawling 18th district.
"I believe a 60 day campaign, very targeted campaign, is much more oriented to retail politics, getting to the right voters, direct mail, getting the message out, getting the information out to the voters with the greatest preponderance to vote."
Brady says he is not as concerned about television or cable, though candidates will have to do some of that to be credible.
Each of the three potential candidates has a geographic base of Republican primary voters. Lahood's Peoria County is about 12%. Tracy has 7% in her back yard of Adams County. Brady says he is well known in McLean County which is up to 20% of the GOP vote. Springfield represents 12 to 14% of potential GOP voters.
"The most neutral and that may end up being the battleground if it's a three man race with Quincy, Bloomington, and Peoria in it."
Brady says turnout will be low, so mobilizing bases of support will be crucial.
Rep. Aaron Schock is stepping down amid federal investigations of his campaign, personal, and office spending practices.