All signs point to Illinois losing a congressional district following the 2020 census. And if current population trends are any indication, that will mean less representation for downstate Illinois.
Kim Brace is president of Election Data Services, a political consulting firm focused on redistricting and census issues.
"If you're going to lose a seat, then more than likely right now it would be coming out of downstate. So that would mean a collapsing of so many districts downstate down to one less as a redraw," he said.
This means the 18th Congressional District currently represented by Darin LaHood would be split up among the remaining downstate districts. Brace said population loss in general has been more dramatic outside the Chicago region over the past decade.
United Democratic control of the General Assembly and governor's office means they will draw the new districts.
Brace said the results are actually better than they may have been. Previously, he said Illinois could lose two congressional seats due to population loss. It's now projected Illinois will squeak by with about 126,000 more people than it would take for the state to lose the 17th Congressional District.
The U.S. Census Bureau projects Illinois lost a net 51,000 people last year. That's the 6th straight year the state's population has shrunk.
States like Texas, Florida, and Arizona are projected to benefit from long-time population shifts towards the southern and southwestern regions of the U.S.
Midwestern states like Illinois, Ohio, Minnesota, and Michigan are among the top population losers.
