LEILA FADEL, HOST:
The American military buildup in the Middle East has reached a critical mass.
MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
That's right. It now appears the U.S. could be capable of a sustained bombing campaign against Iran. Yet President Trump remains noncommittal about whether he will use force. Here he is yesterday.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Now we may have to take it a step further, or we may not. Maybe we're going to make a deal. You're going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.
MARTIN: In a few minutes, we'll talk about this with a former U.S. Navy commander with extensive experience in the Middle East. But first, here's the latest information.
FADEL: We're joined by NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre. Good morning, Greg.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hey, Leila.
MARTIN: OK. So this flow of U.S. forces into the Middle East keeps expanding. Can you break down what's now in the region?
MYRE: Yeah. This buildup has been underway for a month, and more key pieces are now moving into place, and this includes a second aircraft carrier, which will be in the Mediterranean. Some 50 additional fighter jets have been arriving in recent days. The U.S. has also added defensive measures to guard against Iranian missile strikes. So it really is a critical mass, as you noted. This is way above and beyond what's needed to pressure Iran in nuclear negotiations. It's the kind of force that looks capable of fighting for weeks, if not longer.
FADEL: So this might be a basic question, but really fundamental one. What is President Trump trying to achieve?
MYRE: Yeah, he really hasn't spelled that out. In the negotiations, he wants Iran to effectively give up its nuclear program and make other wide-ranging concessions. These are demands Iran has long resisted. Yet he's also expressed support for regime change, which would likely require a major military operation. Now, he hasn't made a major speech to the American public about the prospect of a new Middle East war. His administration hasn't sought support from Congress or made the case at the United Nations. And aside from Israel, he hasn't brought in U.S. allies or built an international coalition.
FADEL: How is Iran preparing for a possible attack, and how might it respond?
MYRE: Yeah. This is the question I put to Alex Vatanka, an Iran expert at the Middle East Institute here in Washington.
ALEX VATANKA: I've been scanning the Iranian media for the last many days. They are predicting that, yes, there'll be some kind of a military conflict with the United States. It'll be something bigger than the 12-day war that we had last summer, but it won't be anything like the Iraq invasion by the United States back in 2003.
MYRE: So Iran was certainly weakened by that war last summer, but it still has a large number of ballistic missiles it can again fire at U.S. military targets in Israel. Now, Vatanka says the main goal of the Iranian government is really just survival, beating back any attempt to oust the Shiite Muslim clerics who've run the country for nearly a half-century. He believes the Iranians are worried about a conflict on two fronts, U.S. and Israeli strikes from the skies and from ordinary Iranians rising up in protest on the streets. As we know, the Iranian security forces crushed those protests last month and killed many people. We just don't know if we'll see another uprising.
FADEL: OK. So that's what we know from Iran - a lot of uncertainty there. Do we know what a U.S. military campaign might actually look like?
MYRE: Yeah, Leila, we really don't. The spectrum of possibilities range at one end from limited strikes on a few specific targets like nuclear facilities. The other end would be a large open-ended campaign intended to topple the regime. Now, we should stress the U.S. military force is built on Navy ships and fighter jets. What you don't see are U.S. ground troops. If the U.S. strikes, it will be with warplanes in the sky and ships firing at sea, not a ground war.
FADEL: That's NPR's Greg Myre. Thank you, Greg.
MYRE: Sure thing, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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