LEILA FADEL, HOST:
House Republicans scored a procedural victory overnight that puts the mega bill just one major vote away from final passage. But GOP leaders are running into some buzzkill from fiscal watchdogs. Forecasters say the measure would likely add trillions of dollars to the federal debt over the next decade while doing little to boost the economy.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
NPR's Scott Horsley is here. So, Scott, the government is already in a pretty deep hole when it comes to debt. I mean, how much more digging would this do?
SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE: At least several trillion dollars' worth. The precise figure varies depending on whose forecast you look at and what they include. But all the independent scorekeepers say this bill would add between $3 and 5 trillion worth of additional red ink over the next decade. Maya MacGuineas, who heads the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, says that's not the direction the U.S. ought to be moving in right now.
MAYA MACGUINEAS: Every fiscal warning sign is blinking red right now - near record levels of debt, $22 trillion in additional borrowing over the coming decade, record interest payments that are growing faster than other parts of the budget - and this makes that worse every single way.
HORSLEY: The bill extends most of the tax cuts from the first Trump administration and adds some new tax breaks on top of that. The biggest tax cuts go to the wealthiest taxpayers, while families making less than about $55,000 a year would on average end up worse off under this bill. That's because the tax savings those families would receive would be outweighed by cuts to safety net programs like Medicaid and food stamps.
MARTÍNEZ: Any economic payoff at all from all the tax cuts?
HORSLEY: To hear the White House tell it, this bill is going to supercharge economic growth. But most outside experts are very skeptical of those White House numbers. When forecasters at the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office looked at the House version of the bill, they found only modest economic gains. And those were dwarfed by the higher borrowing costs. So MacGuineas says the overall effect on the government's finances are likely to be negative.
MACGUINEAS: For months now, people who support the bill have been saying, don't worry, this is going to cause massive growth. We're going to grow our way out of the whole problem. And what you see when you look at the dynamic scores, no, that's not the case at all.
HORSLEY: When the government has to borrow all this extra money, that not only raises the interest cost for taxpayers, it also drives up interest rates for private borrowers, like you and me. It makes it more expensive for families who try to buy a house or businesses that want to build a plant or buy new equipment. So that could be a further drag on economic growth.
MARTÍNEZ: So what did the president or congressional leaders have to do to get this bill across the finish line at this point?
HORSLEY: Yeah, both the president and GOP leaders in the House are using all their powers of persuasion, or if not persuasion, just raw political muscle. Some lawmakers don't like all this extra debt. Others are worried about the fallout from the spending cuts. But even before the votes were tallied, MacGuineas acknowledged, none of that makes a lot of difference in the current political environment.
MACGUINEAS: The remarkable thing is there are so many members of Congress who are concerned about this bill and frankly know it is the wrong bill for the moment that we are in. The question is whether they will be able to stand up to the immense political pressure that's on them from the White House, from the leadership, to pass a bill that they know is fiscally damaging.
HORSLEY: And the answer appears to be that pressure is working. Of course, all these House lawmakers are going to have to face the voters next year. President Trump will not.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah, the midterms are right around the corner. NPR's Scott Horsley. Thanks a lot, Scott.
HORSLEY: Good to be with you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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